2025 was a record year for the Spanish property market. Prices rose by 12.8% year-on-year — 42 consecutive quarters of growth. Sales volumes returned to levels not seen since 2007. Foreign buyers set a new record: approximately 140,000 transactions, 20% of all sales. And this — despite the Golden Visa cancellation.
What awaits the market in 2026? Below are data, not opinions.
What Happened in 2025
Key figures for 2025:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Price growth (INE, year-on-year) | +12.8% |
| Average price, Spain (Idealista, Nov 2025) | €2,605/m² |
| Sales volume | ~720,000 transactions |
| Foreign buyers | ~140,000 transactions (~20%) |
| Foreign share in Alicante | 51.8% |
| Foreign share in Andalusia (Malaga) | 42.9% |
| Price growth, Valencian Community | +18.0% |
| Price growth, Alicante (province) | +15.3–15.9% |
| 12-month Euribor, January 2026 | 2.267% |
The market is characterised by analysts (BBVA Research, Bankinter) as "overheated due to supply shortages" but not a speculative bubble: growth is driven by real demand, demographic pressure, and insufficient new construction.
Price Forecast for 2026
Analyst consensus: growth will continue but moderate.
| Source | 2026 growth forecast |
|---|---|
| CaixaBank Research | +6.3% |
| BBVA Research | +7% |
| Gilmar (Héctor Tramullas, CEO) | +4–6% |
| Elix (Teresa Marzo, CEO) | +5–6% |
| Gesvalt (Ricardo Martí-Fluxá) | +9–10% |
| REBS / University of Malaga | +7.6% (new builds), +8.7% (resale) |
Average expectation: +5–7% nationally, +7–10% in hotspot regions.
Drivers of continued growth: housing deficit (~600,000 units as estimated in 2025), population growth (+180,000 new households/year), limited new construction (~140,000 permits in 2025, 150,000 in 2026 — insufficient to meet demand), ECB rate cuts improving mortgage accessibility, sustained foreign buyer demand.
Reasons for moderation: high-base effect, declining affordability for Spanish buyers, regulatory risks (discussion of additional taxes on non-resident buyers, restrictions on tourist rentals in certain regions).
Prices by Region: Costa Blanca, Costa del Sol, Costa Cálida
| Region | Avg. price/m² (2025) | 2025 growth | 2026 forecast | Foreign share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Blanca (Alicante) | €2,500 | +15.3% | +5–9% | 51.8% |
| Costa del Sol (Malaga) | €3,842 | +15.3% | +5–9% | 42.9% |
| Costa Cálida (Murcia) | €1,515 | +14.6% | +6–8% | ~25% |
Costa Blanca (Alicante)
Spain's leader for foreign buyer share: over half of all transactions are by foreigners. Average price €2,500/m² is 40% below the 2007 peak and 50% below the Costa del Sol. In 2026, growth of +5–9% is expected, with premium zones (Jávea, Moraira, Altea Hills) reaching +10%.
Prices by town (2025):
| Town | Price/m² |
|---|---|
| Benidorm | €3,200 |
| Jávea | €3,000–5,000 |
| Moraira | €2,500–4,500 |
| Alicante (city) | €2,500 |
| Calpe | €2,800 |
| Altea | €2,800–3,500 |
| Torrevieja | €2,300 |
| Finestrat / Polop | €1,500–2,800 |
Costa del Sol (Malaga)
Spain's most expensive coastal market: Marbella, Estepona, Benalmadena. Average price €3,842/m², Marbella significantly higher. Luxury-dominated market: 62% of transactions above €2.5M are by foreigners, 60% without financing. Expected +5–9% in 2026, with the premium segment reaching +10%.
Costa Cálida (Murcia)
The most affordable of the three regions: €1,515/m². Murcia recorded the highest growth among autonomous communities — +14.6% in 2025. Developing market with growing foreign buyer share. Expected +6–8% in 2026. Attracting buyers priced out of the Costa Blanca and Costa del Sol.
Foreign Buyer Demand
Foreign buyers are the defining force of the market. Key facts for 2025:
- ~140,000 transactions (record, +40% vs 2019)
- 20% of all transactions (historical average: 10.5%)
- Top 5 nationalities: British, German, Dutch, Belgian, French (together ~48.5% of non-resident purchases)
- Non-residents buy more expensive properties on average than residents and Spaniards
- 2025 vs 2024 growth: approximately +5.5%
New 2026 trend: growing share of buyers from the US, Latin America (Mexico), and Southeast Asia. Buyers are younger and more tech-oriented — founders, finance executives, digital nomads.
The Golden Visa cancellation (April 2025) has had no impact on demand. CaixaBank Research confirms: Golden Visas accounted for ~2,000 applications per year — negligible compared to 140,000+ foreign purchases.
New Builds vs Resale
| Segment | 2025 growth | Volume | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resale | +12.8% | ~580,000 | ~80% |
| New builds | +12.1% | ~140,000 | ~20% |
The new-build share is growing (from 21% in 2024 to 22.2% in 2025) but remains far from the 2007 peak (42%).
The problem: construction is too slow. ~140,000 building permits in 2025 versus ~180,000 new households per year + ~50,000 non-resident purchases. The deficit is accumulating. BBVA forecasts permit growth of +16% and +13% in 2025–2026, but this is not enough.
For buyers, this means: with supply constrained, there are no grounds to expect price declines in 2026.
Rental Yields by Region
| City / Region | Average gross yield | Rental type |
|---|---|---|
| Alicante (city) | 5.6% | Long-term + seasonal |
| Benidorm | 6–8% | Short-term (year-round) |
| Torrevieja | 6–7% | Short-term + long-term |
| Jávea / Dénia | 4–6% | Seasonal (premium) |
| Malaga (city) | 4.7% | Long-term |
| Marbella | 4.9% | Short-term (premium) |
| Murcia (region) | 6–7% | Mixed |
| Spain average (Q3 2025) | 5.4% | — |
Rental prices in Spain grew by 11.5% in 2024 (Idealista), reaching a record of €13.5/m² per month. Growth continues in 2025–2026 due to long-term rental supply shortage: the Housing Law (2023) led some landlords to shift to tourist rentals, reducing available stock for residents.
For investors: Costa Blanca offers the best value-for-money in terms of yields versus entry price compared to the Costa del Sol. Benidorm leads with yields up to 8%, driven by year-round demand.
Golden Visa Impact
Minimal. The Golden Visa generated ~2,000 applications per year against 140,000+ foreign purchases. Foreigners buy for lifestyle, climate, rental yields, and capital appreciation — not for residence permits.
Alternative residency routes (Digital Nomad Visa, Non-Lucrative Visa) are available and functioning. More detail in our guide "Golden Visa Cancelled: What to Do."
Mortgage Rates — Outlook
12-month Euribor in January 2026: 2.267%. Significantly below the 2023 peak of 4.2%, but the fifth consecutive month of slight increase.
Fixed rates for non-residents: 2.8–3.5%. For residents: 2–2.5%. The ECB maintains its moderate easing trajectory, but the pace of cuts has slowed.
Forecast: stable or slightly declining rates in 2026. A significant drop to 2021–2022 levels (Euribor near 0%) should not be expected.
More detail in our guide "Mortgages in Spain for Foreigners."
Should You Buy in 2026
Facts in favour: prices have risen for 42 consecutive quarters and are forecast to grow +5–7% further. The structural housing deficit will not be resolved in 1–2 years. Mortgage rates are stable. Rental yields of 5–7% are among the best in Europe. Costa Blanca remains 40% below its 2007 peak prices.
Reasons for caution: the pace of growth is slowing (from +12.8% to +5–7%). Regulatory risks: possible restrictions on tourist rentals in certain cities. Discussion of an additional tax on purchases by non-EU non-resident buyers (January 2025 proposal, unlikely to pass in current form).
Conclusion: 2026 remains a buyer-investor market, but the window of opportunity is narrowing. Waiting for a "price correction" is not supported by any of the major analytical sources.
